Class of 2028, Your Future Degree Could Lose Federal Funding
By the time today’s juniors go to college in fall 2028, federal loans could be off the table for programs they may be planning to study. Students may have to decide between changing their majors, obtaining private funding or abandoning their years-long college plans due to a new Trump administration regulation.
That adds a new risk to the college search. A school could accept a student, offer the exact major they want to pursue and still not have access to the federal loans that allow them to attend. That could drastically change where students apply, especially for families relying on financial aid.
The rule will review each college’s degree programs individually. It does not automatically cut federal loans for entire majors nationwide. Programs in social work, early childhood education, teaching assistance, art, music, religious studies, cosmetology, mental and social health services and alternative medicine may face greater risk due to lower graduate earnings.
These are only examples, since any program that fails the earnings test could be at risk of losing federal loan access. A program at one university may pass, while the same program somewhere else may fail.
The policy is part of the Student Tuition and Transparency System (STATS). It will consider graduates’ earnings four years after leaving their programs. Undergraduate college graduates must out-earn similar workers with only a high school diploma.
Graduate programs must show that their graduates make more than those with only a bachelor’s degree. The Department of Education could use either national or state wage data, depending on where most of the college’s students reside.
The Department of Education says a program that fails the earnings test in two out of three consecutive years can lose access to federal Direct Loans for at least two years. Initial results are expected in 2027. For programs that fail to meet both the 2027 and 2028 targets, federal loan access could be removed in the 2028-29 school year, when current high school juniors are set to start college.
“I think what Trump is doing could affect me in the future, as well as other people in my grade who are interested in the majors being affected. It’s unfair, and I think that even if a program doesn’t lead to high earnings, its funding shouldn’t be cut,” said junior Amy Sanchez.
Students would still be able to enroll in an affected program but would have to find another way to pay, such as through private loans, scholarships or family money. Private loans may have different interest rates, repayment plans and protections than federal loans.
“I don’t think this rule is good in any way. A lot of students don’t have the financial freedom to pay for college themselves, and losing federal loans could make it much harder for them to enter the careers they want without taking on a mountain of debt. It could also force students to change their future plans just to remain financially secure,” said junior Kevin Ceballos.
The Trump administration says the rule will protect students from taking on debt for programs that do not lead to strong earnings. Federal officials say colleges receiving federal money should be able to demonstrate that their programs result in better financial outcomes for graduates.
Critics say the test focuses too much on salary. Teachers, artists and social workers may begin their careers earning less, but their work remains crucial to society. Cutting access to loans could deter students from entering fields already struggling to find workers.
“A career making less money does not mean it isn’t worth investing in. Fields such as philosophy, art and music build community, bring people together and can even inspire discoveries in other areas. Judging those careers only by income could limit people’s talents and weaken the impact these fields have on society,” said Ceballos.
One analysis cited by Yahoo Finance estimated that about 2% of associate and bachelor’s degree programs could potentially be at risk. For-profit colleges are expected to be hit hardest.
The rule might yield different results depending on a student’s financial situation. Private financing and tuition may still be within reach for wealthy families. Even if students fulfill all academic requirements for a program, those who depend on federal loans may have fewer choices.
“I understand where the Trump administration is coming from, since some degrees are useless and may not lead to the same financial return as others. Still, I don’t think that means the government should cut their federal funding. People have dream careers and stuff, so it just wouldn’t be fair to them,” said Miami Dade College graduate Bryan Henriquez.
Colleges must tell applicants if a program is at risk of losing support. The federal College Scorecard also allows current juniors to compare program costs, graduate earnings and debt before deciding where to apply.
Until the first results come out, the full impact will not be known. For now, the Class of 2028 may need to pose a new question in their college search: “Will I be able to get federal loans for this degree once I get there?”
